Today North Africa and the Middle East are strongholds for the Muslim faith. Most people think they always were. Not so. In the sixth century Christianity was the primary religion of both regions. Tertullian, an early Church father called the “first Christian theologian” by some, came from North Africa. So did Augustine of Hippo, one of the most influential Christian thinkers of all time, and many other early Christian leaders.
In the sixth century the Christian Church stretched from the Atlantic Ocean along both sides of the Mediterranean Sea, across the Balkans, through modern-day Turkey, along the Black Sea and into Asia Minor. Afghanistan had a Christian bishop and some Christian groups sent missionaries as far east as China.
The Byzantine Empire from its capital in Constantinople in modern-day Turkey was the center of political power and the center of the Christian world. From cities like Alexandria and Carthage, North Africa was a stronghold of Christian faith.
All of that changed in about 100 years.
In the seventh century, following the death of Muhammad in 632 A.D., Arab armies gained control of Mesopotamia, Egypt and Syria. During the middle decades of that century, Muslims captured North Africa and burned Carthage and other cities to the ground. Farther east, Muslims invaded Afghanistan and conquered Kabul in 664.
The great churches of North Africa were destroyed and their libraries burned. Most Christians died by the sword or were forced to convert to Islam. In a few places Christians were allowed to live by paying “jizya,” a tax indicating subjection to the Muslim state. This helped Coptic Christians survive along with some Orthodox Christians in Asia Minor.
In the course of about 100 years the Christian faith all but vanished from North Africa and the Middle East. Only the ruins of that civilization testified to it ever existing.
Some believe the world faces a similar confrontation today. Islamic State (ISIS) and its allies have become notorious for beheading and crucifying Christians and others who dissent from their agenda of establishing a new Islamic Caliphate to rule the Muslim world. Some say to rule the world.
The violent threat of ISIS is real. It has made enemies of nations that question its policies, killed Muslims who stood against its goals and labeled the Christian faith as enemy. Whether ISIS is the future of that faith or an aberration put down by more traditional Muslims remains to be seen.
Threat of indifference
In the meantime Christianity faces another threat so potentially dangerous that it could all but eliminate the faith in some strongholds during this century. That threat is indifference.
According to a study by Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary in South Hamilton, Massachusetts, Europe still has the largest number of Christians using a sociological definition — 562 million or 25.02 percent of the world’s Christian population. Unfortunately another study by the Pew Research Center indicates a dramatic drop of Europeans who will identify themselves as Christians in the next generation.
In the United Kingdom, Christians, the study says, made up 64.3 percent of the population in 2010. By 2050 a little more than a generation from now, that percentage will drop to 45.4 percent. “Unaffiliated” will grow from 27.8 percent to 38.9 percent.
In France the Christian population is expected to drop from 63 percent in 2010 to 43.1 percent in 2050 while unaffiliated grows from 28 percent to 44.1 percent. The Netherlands is forecast to have only 39.6 percent Christians by 2050 with 49.1 percent unaffiliated. The decline of Christians and the rise of unaffiliated is repeated in Germany, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden and other European countries.
Christians in Australia are expected to drop 20 percent — from 67 to 47 percent — while unaffiliated grows from 24.2 percent to 40.4 percent by 2050. In New Zealand, Christians will make up 44.7 percent and unaffiliated will be 45.1 percent by that year. In the United States, Pew says Christians will decline from 78.3 percent in 2010 to 66.4 percent in 2050. Unaffiliated will make up 25.6 percent of the population.
Those numbers are for a 40-year period. Project them forward over four generations — 100 years — and the danger to the Christian faith is obvious. Nations that called themselves Christian nations, that served as the catalyst for missionary efforts around the world, that produced the most outstanding Christian institutions, authors, philosophers and ministers, could find the Christian faith all but vanished 100 years from now.
The Gordon-Conwell study on the status of Christianity in the world pointed out that in 200 years (1800–2000) the world population increased more than six times. The Christian population increased more than nine times in the same period.
Since 2000 the world population has grown at a 1.12 percent rate annually. The Christian population has grown 1.32 percent annually. Most of that growth has been in Africa and South America. Christian growth in Europe and the U.S. trails population growth. That is another disturbing trend for the future of the faith.
For Christians the implications seem clear. Another 100 years of business as usual and the gospel of Jesus Christ may be as foreign to Europe, America and other modern-day strongholds as it is in North Africa and the Middle East today. And the decline may have nothing to do with ISIS.
Intervention of God
What God will do in the years ahead is a mystery. Historian Martin Marty points out the 19th century in America witnessed the transformation of this nation from about 10 percent churchgoers in 1800 to nearly 70 percent in 1900. The last years of the 20th century revealed the miracle God performed in China where the Church grew from about 700,000 in 1949 to around 100 million today by some estimates.
As we emphasize taking the gospel to every nation, tribe and tongue, let us not forget the needs of our homelands. Unless exciting and effective ways are found to share the gospel where the Christian faith has historically flourished, indifference may overtake the ugent call for committment to Christ. Before the embers of faith grow cold and dark, a fresh wind of God’s Spirit is needed to rekindle the flame of faith.
Join me in praying for another intervention of God. Without it, what happened a millennium and a half ago could happen again. That would be a historical shame. More importantly, it would be an eternal tragedy for all those who lived and died without a personal relationship with God through faith in Jesus Christ.
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